Once the Xero IPO was announced, I wrote that I’d probably take up the offer, once I’d had a chance to study it. Well, I’ve done so, and I have to say it’s very fully priced for what is essentially an early stage venture investment. Mark Clare at Valuecruncher has a similar view. On the other hand, look at the potential.
At $600 a year, and 10,000 customers, you’re onto a $6 million revenue stream. But that’s a very, very modest milestone. Firstly, the chartered accountants love the features designed for them, and will no doubt be pushing it to their small business clients. While the primary target is micro-businesses and small businesses (less than 20 people), if Xero adds true multi-account capability and some smart planning tools, then you’re looking at a very serious SME offering. I also know lots of people who are planning to use Xero for their private book-keeping, if the functionality grows to enable investments to be managed (as per MS Money or Quicken), with good links to debt, equity and FX pricing. Pricing is key - I get all that included with my current PC app at no extra charge - but Xero knows that.
Now don’t confuse Xero’s market offer with running your own copy of MYOB on your PC. Xero takes care of all the backend system management, your accountant can work online with you, and you can access the system anywhere (at home, in the office, at the bank, overseas, etc). It’s not for everyone (especially rabid DIY IT guys), but for your typical non-IT small business person, it’s very appealing.
How many customers can they get? Well the sky’s the limit. Think 100,000 in NZ at least - that’s $60m+ in annual revenues. But Rod Drury and his team are thinking global - English-speaking first, to keep things simple). The margins in this business should be stunning (even better than TradeMe), and there are other revenue opportunities from advertising and add-on services.
So I’m buying in. I’m not betting the house - it’s very pricey for an early stage deal. If the share price drops after the initial euphoria wanes (and it probably will), I’ll probably pick up some more. If it works, and I expect it will, I’ll do very nicely, thank you.
(I just wish I could have bought in at the start-up stage!)
Update 17 May: I’ve been on a plane since posting this, and on checking my emails in the lounge at Hong Kong, everyone’s asking where I got my 100k customer number from. I plucked it out of the air. I defy anyone to come up with an accurate estimate for an early stage company. My point is that if - I repeat - if Xero is a winner, it could be huge. Who would have picked TradeMe’s eventual customer base in NZ (yes I know Xero’s B2B for now, not B2C, but maybe it can morph into a B2C offer as well). Buying into Xero gives me a position in that potential upside, while keeping my maximum downside limited to my initial modest investment. But you shouldn’t invest in this if you can’t afford to write off that investment, and smile about it. Again, I think it’s very fully priced for this stage of the game.