Richard Holway is arguably the UK’s  leading independent analyst and commentator on the IT industry, especially the software and services sectors.  He looks at how companies perform, rather than the technology itself, although that provides a key context for his prognostications (a bit like me). Holway, a self-proclaimed pessimist, usually dismisses hyped projections of future company performance. However, while picking the weak performance of the IT sector in 2008 (and 2009), he’s started to take a more positive tone in his medium term outlook, published on Monday.

Where now?
We got out of [the] downturn of [the] early 1990s because every bit of tech had its own ‘Next Big Thing’ – Windows, mobile phones, outsourcing, email, the internet, digital media etc.

…. I really feel that ‘All the ducks are in a row’ for a major period of technology-led change.

Casting off my normally gloomy image, I really do feel that we could be entering a very good time to invest in technology. I am unsure about calling the nadir just yet - but I think we are close to it. A repeat of the performance of tech in the 1990s is not out of the question.

What are those ducks in a row, all those existing technologies ready and available to be deployed and come together, creating supply, implementation, integration and support opportunities for product vendors and service providers?

1. Mobile Internet Devices – eg. iPhone, netbooks, laptops, even your TV - all interconnected via WiFi, 3G or whatever
2. Cloud Computing - all processing, storage, synchronisation, security and backup delivered over the internet
3. Software as a Service - applications delivered via the internet
4. Fast mobile internet access
5. Ultra-fast fibre-based internet access [JDD rider: in major towns and cities near communications backbone routes]
6. Virtual jukebox for music
7. On demand TV
8. Personalised news feeds
9. Targeted personally-relevant advertising
10. Social networking environments for work and play.

A September 08 presentation by Richard Holway is available here (5Mb pdf file).

Disclosure: My family trust and Isambard Investments hold shares and other securities in various IT-related companies.