Surfing the technology hype wave
Technology trends researcher Gartner has published its 2009 Hype Cycle Report. This attempts to place technology developments onto what it calls the “Hype Cycle”, a wavelike progression over expectations over time:
- Technology trigger
- Peak of inflated expectations
- Trough of disillusionment
- Slope of enlightenment
- Plateau of productivity
Here are some of Gartner’s views on four “hot” technologies at the “peak of inflated expectations”
Cloud Computing. … The levels of hype around cloud computing in the IT industry are deafening, with every vendor expounding its cloud strategy and variations, such as private cloud computing and hybrid approaches, compounding the hype.
E-Book Readers. … the devices still suffer from proprietary file formats and digital rights management technologies, which along with price, are limiting their adoption and will drive them into the Trough of Disillusionment.
Social Software Suites. … Within businesses, there is strong and rapidly growing evidence of experimentation and early production deployments… Disillusionment is … based on the realization that … much work must be done to build an effective social software deployment.
Microblogging. … Twitter … exploded in popularity … inevitable disillusionment around “channel pollution” is beginning. As microblogging becomes a standard feature …, it is earning its place alongside other channels (for example, e-mail, blogging and wikis), enabling new kinds of fast, witty, easy-to-assimilate exchanges.
Meanwhile, RFID (wireless product tagging) is at the bottom of the “trough of disillusionment”, and mobile payments technology is just emerging from it to begin climbing the “slope of enlightenment”.
August 24th, 2009 at 3:33 pm
Where do you put the latest political hype re. every farmer and his dog needing 100mbit FTTC (Fibre to the Cowshed) to check fencepost.com (Hrrm, looks like its fonterra.com now)
August 24th, 2009 at 4:06 pm
I’ve been sceptical from Day One. Have a look at this for a summary of a more measured approach:
http://jimdonovan.net.nz/2008/03/30/getting-fast-broadband-to-a-city-near-you/