Having enjoyed a fabulous warm, sunny Christmas and New Year at the beach, I’m back in Wellington with a severe gale warning on the radio.  2010 will be like that - swinging between awful and fantastic.

On the awful side, I expect to still be involved in helping companies cope with the continuing economic downturn. Globally, things are definitely looking up, but the usual post-Christmas cashflow stress will have to be survived in 2010 without  a 2009 cash cushion. While good companies have done well to survive 2009, some will struggle to make it through to the upturn, and I expect more company failures.

On the other hand, I’ve already seen several promising new businesses - too many to be involved in personally, but still great to see. And some existing businesses have survived in very good shape, ready to take full advantage of the upturn when it arrives.

What’s the difference between the failures, the strugglers and the fliers? Putting aside differences in  market sector, scale, and life cycle stage, not a lot. The businesses I worked with in 2009 all typically have smart market offers, with good systems, people and leadership.   But some will still fall by the wayside in 2010. While I usually say you make your own luck, sometimes you’re just in the wrong place at the wrong time. This recession is one such wrong time.

Tough times are an opportunity for buyers to get a good deal - I certainly expect to get some bargains this year. But you ultimately lose if you squeeze your key suppliers out of business, whether it be through overly-aggressive bargaining, slow payments, delayed decision-making or unthinking internal sloppiness. As a customer, you may want to be kinder to vendors this year.  You’ll want good suppliers to survive this recession, to be ready to support you in the upturn.

So why not make 2010 the year that you look after your key suppliers? I don’t mean go soft, I mean get smart.