At lunch last Friday, I sat next to economist and columnist Tim Harford, the author of The Undercover Economist, who was in Wellington to speak to the Chamber of Commerce about his latest book The Logic of Life. Readers will already have read my review, so I won’t reiterate that. I asked Tim a few questions, to which I hopefully can paraphrase his answers correctly.
J: This new wave of economics writing applies the data analysis disciplines of economics to social issues, but is it still economics?
T: One circular argument is that economics is what economists do. Seriously though, economics works on a basic assumption of rationality, that people balance costs and benefits, risks and rewards. We’re now looking at broader (applications) than just monetary issues. And remember that some of the leading economics thinkers aren’t economists. Look at James Coleman.
J: A key concept in your latest book (and in economics) is that people’s actions are, on the whole, ‘rational’. But that’s not the same as ‘ideal’, is it?
T: No-one is perfectly rational. And the result of individual rationality can be social chaos. On the subject of rationality, it’s important to remember that people do not have to be supercomputers to work out costs and benefits. We deal with complex matters all the time. Take catching a cricket ball. We can describe the complex mathematics to calculate the flight of the ball, but only a few people actually know and understand them, and in any case, we couldn’t do the calculation fast enough to help us catch the ball. But somehow we do do that calculation subconsciously and very, very quickly. People and animals calculate costs and benefits all the time. Otherwise we couldn’t survive.
J: If you were in charge of the ship, what 3 policy initiatives would you implement?
T: I wouldn’t want to be in charge, but there are 3 things I want. Firstly, use randomised trials to test all policy initiatives. The insights are very powerful (and finding out that something doesn’t work is a successful result). Secondly, use international benchmarking a lot more to guide policy development. For example, when I was at the World Bank, we published a study of red tape around the world. New Zealand came out very favourably on setting up a company. Thirdly, I’d implement a rational green tax as fast as possible.
J: Carbon emission tax or ‘cap and trade’?
T: They’ve both got strengths and weaknesses, but either can do the job. Most economists favour emission taxes, but cap and trade is probably easier to get through the lobby groups and vested interests.
Tim made an important final point about intentions and actions. Economists don’t pay attention to what people say they will do, they look at what people actually do. That’s often very different, even when people know the supposed ‘right thing to do’. Marketers and designers should bear that in mind.